Wednesday 28 December 2016

Explainer

What are Man-Games Lost?
Man-games lost (MGL) to injury is normally understood to be the total number of times a team has had a player or players unavailable to dress for a game, i.e. a single player missing 10 games builds up 10 MGL; 2 players each missing 5 games also builds up 10 MGL.

MGL is the injury statistic most commonly referred to the media and figures are recorded and published in some form on a pseudo-official basis by the vast majority of NHL teams. However...

What are the drawbacks?
Teams' "official" MGL figures are not published on an aggregated basis by the league, nor is there necessarily any consistency in how teams compile and record the figures.

For example, some teams count "retired" players still under contract (more on this later), some count non-NHLers who are injured at the start of the season and can't be re-assigned until healthy, some have very hazy distinctions between healthy and injured scratches.

The most obvious drawback of using raw MGL figures is that they do not account for differences in value of the absent players. A game missed by Sidney Crosby of the Penguins is indistinguishable from a game missed by Gord Facepuncher of the Oilers.

What is CHIP?
Using a player’s cap hit to weight MGL is one way to approximate value.

Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/illness, i.e. annual cap charge* divided by 82.

(*Strictly, I use Average Annual Value (AAV) here, which includes the full amount of potential performance bonuses.)

Clearly, this is not perfect as a measure of value by any means - it won't take you long to think of examples of bloated UFA deals for ageing players or young bargains still on entry-level contracts (even allowing for inclusion of performance bonuses). However, cap hit is simple, stable, comparable across positions and lends itself to snappy, food-based acronyms.

Cap hit above replacement level would arguably be an easy improvement, but again, the focus here is on simplicity.

Why not weight by something else?
I often do - posts on my Twitter feed regularly include an alternative weighting by time-on-ice (TOI) and by Evolving Hockey's Wins above Replacement (WAR) metric, and some of the viz here also reflect the latter. However, it's impractical to keep updating all the viz here on multiple bases (and other weightings have their own drawbacks - less intuitive, messed up by small/zero samples, less stable over the season and, for TOI at least, less comparable across positions).

I'm definitely not claiming CHIP to be infallible or superior to alternatives, but it's a solid starting point that doesn't need detailed explanation.

Which players are included/excluded in your figures?
Players still under contract but either officially “retired” or out indefinitely with no prospect of a return in future are generally excluded from the figures from the start of the season (though remain separately identifiable in team charts).

Minor league players who are often put on Season Opening IR (non-roster) are excluded, as they simply cant be reassigned until cleared to play and (almost always) aren't likely roster candidates at that time. However, anyone who gets injured while on the active roster during the season is included.

Absences due to illness are included, but healthy scratches, suspensions, and absences due to entering the Personal Assistance Program or due to “personal reasons” are excluded.

Some subjectivity in all of this, especially where a player is in the Personal Assistance Program or where an absence officially described as being due to "personal reasons" is due to treating a mental health condition, for example, but I try to be consistent.

In 2020/21 and 2021/22, all Covid-related absences while a roster player (or expected to be) unless specifically understood to be due to visa issues have been included in the figures, though these won't necessarily align with the periods players were on the official protocol list. Injuries to players on the taxi squad rather than the active roster have not been included.

Do you record every injury to every player?
Not that simple, unfortunately. While the player records will be fairly comprehensive in most cases, a few reasons they won't be in others:
  • Injuries that don't cause any missed games (e.g. during the offseason) aren't covered
  • Playoff games missed are covered in separate summaries but are now included in the full player listings
  • Injuries while not in the NHL (or while on the taxi squad in 2020/21 and part of 2021/22) are excluded
  • My player records only go back as far as 2000/01

My team is always the most injured, right?
Yes.

How frequently do you update the figures?
Usually weekly, life-permitting. Fastest updates will by through the Twitter feed (@NHLInjuryViz) - normally done on a Sunday. Viz on this site might typically take a day or two longer to be refreshed.

Where is your data from?

Can you share your raw data?
Yes. Just ask nicely via @NHLInjuryViz and something can normally be arranged.


Tuesday 25 October 2016

2016/17 team man-games lost plots

Notes
  • Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/illness, i.e. annual cap charge divided by 82 (data from capfriendly.com)
  • There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' different reporting standards
  • Injury absence data I have used comes from the player profile pages on tsn.ca
  • Figures generally exclude minor league players (at my subjective discretion) who are often on teams’ IR lists at the start of each season, but include anyone who gets injured while on the active roster during the season
  • Illnesses are included, but healthy scratches, suspensions, and absences due to “personal reasons” are excluded
  • Games missed by players still under contract but either officially “retired” or out indefinitely with no prospect of a return (Dave Bolland, David Clarkson, Ryane Clowe, Pascal Dupuis, Andrew Ference, Johan Franzén, Mikhail Grabovski, Nathan Horton, Joffrey Lupul, Cody McCormick, Chris Pronger, Stéphane Robidas, Marc Savard, Joe Vitale) are also included, but are separately identifiable

2016/17 team injury breakdowns


Notes
  • Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/illness, i.e. annual cap charge divided by 82 (data from capfriendly.com)
  • There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' different reporting standards
  • Injury absence data I have used comes from the player profile pages on tsn.ca
  • Figures generally exclude minor league players (at my subjective discretion) who are often on teams’ IR lists at the start of each season, but include anyone who gets injured while on the active roster during the season
  • Illnesses are included, but healthy scratches, suspensions, and absences due to “personal reasons” are excluded
  • Games missed by players still under contract but either officially “retired” or out indefinitely with no prospect of a return (Dave Bolland, David Clarkson, Ryane Clowe, Pascal Dupuis, Andrew Ference, Johan Franzén, Mikhail Grabovski, Nathan Horton, Joffrey Lupul, Cody McCormick, Chris Pronger, Stéphane Robidas, Marc Savard, Joe Vitale) are included in team breakdowns (invisible as default view, however). They are excluded from team comparison charts.
  • Team possession and PDO data comes from corsica.hockey

Wednesday 27 April 2016

2010/11 team man-games lost plots


Notes
  • Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/illness, i.e. annual cap charge divided by 82 (as per the former capgeek.com)
  • There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' different reporting standards
  • Injury absence data I have used comes from the player profile pages on tsn.ca
  • Figures generally exclude minor league players (at my subjective discretion) who are often on teams’ IR lists at the start of each season, but include anyone who gets injured while on the active roster during the season
  • Illnesses are included, but healthy scratches, suspensions, and absences due to “personal reasons” are excluded
  • Games missed by “retired” players still under contract (Kurt Sauer, Ian Laperrière - both missed the whole year and have not played since, even if informal retirement had not been acknowledged at the time) are also included, but are separately identifiable

Saturday 23 April 2016

2011/12 team man-games lost plots


Notes
  • Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/illness, i.e. annual cap charge divided by 82 (as per the former capgeek.com)
  • There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' different reporting standards
  • Injury absence data I have used comes from the player profile pages on tsn.ca
  • Figures generally exclude minor league players (at my subjective discretion) who are often on teams’ IR lists at the start of each season, but include anyone who gets injured while on the active roster during the season
  • Illnesses are included, but healthy scratches, suspensions, and absences due to “personal reasons” are excluded
  • Games missed by “retired” players still under contract (Blair Betts, Marc Savard, Mattias Öhlund, Kurt Sauer, Ian Laperrière - all missed the whole year and have not played since, even if informal retirement had not been acknowledged at the time) are also included, but are separately identifiable

Friday 22 April 2016

2012/13 team man-games lost plots


Notes
  • Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/illness, i.e. annual cap charge divided by 82 (as per the former capgeek.com)
  • There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' different reporting standards
  • Injury absence data I have used comes from the player profile pages on tsn.ca
  • Figures generally exclude minor league players (at my subjective discretion) who are often on teams’ IR lists at the start of each season, but include anyone who gets injured while on the active roster during the season
  • Illnesses are included, but healthy scratches, suspensions, and absences due to “personal reasons” are excluded
  • Games missed by “retired” players still under contract (Andy Sutton, Marc Savard, Mattias Öhlund, Michael Sauer, Chris Pronger - all missed the whole year and have not played since, even if informal retirement had not been acknowledged at the time) are also included, but are separately identifiable

Friday 12 February 2016

2013/14 team man-games lost plots


Notes
  • Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/illness, i.e. annual cap charge divided by 82 (as per the former capgeek.com)
  • There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' different reporting standards
  • Injury absence data I have used comes from the player profile pages on tsn.ca
  • Figures generally exclude minor league players (at my subjective discretion) who are often on teams’ IR lists at the start of each season, but include anyone who gets injured while on the active roster during the season
  • Illnesses are included, but healthy scratches, suspensions, and absences due to “personal reasons” are excluded
  • Games missed by “retired” players still under contract (Sheldon Souray, Marc Savard, Mattias Öhlund, Brian Lee, Joni Pitkänen, Chris Pronger, Tomáš Vokoun - all missed the whole year and have not played since, even if informal retirement had not been acknowledged at the time) are also included, but are separately identifiable

Thursday 4 February 2016

2014/15 team man-games lost plots


Notes
  • Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/illness, i.e. annual cap charge divided by 82 (as per the former capgeek.com)
  • There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' different reporting standards
  • Injury absence data I have used comes from the player profile pages on tsn.ca
  • Figures generally exclude minor league players (at my subjective discretion) who are often on teams’ IR lists at the start of each season, but include anyone who gets injured while on the active roster during the season
  • Illnesses are included, but healthy scratches, suspensions, and absences due to “personal reasons” are excluded
  • Games missed by “retired” players still under contract (Sheldon Souray, Marc Savard, Mattias Öhlund, Rich Peverley, Chris Pronger - all missed the whole year and have not played since, even if informal retirement had not been acknowledged at the time) are also included, but are separately identifiable

Saturday 23 January 2016

2015/16 team man-games lost plots


Notes
  • Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/illness, i.e. annual cap charge divided by 82 (data from war-on-ice.com, generalfanager.com and capfriendly.com)
  • There will be inconsistency between my numbers and “official” team man-games lost (MGL) figures due to teams' different reporting standards
  • Injury absence data I have used comes from the player profile pages on tsn.ca
  • Figures generally exclude minor league players (at my subjective discretion) who are often on teams’ IR lists at the start of each season, but include anyone who gets injured while on the active roster during the season
  • Illnesses are included, but healthy scratches, suspensions, and absences due to “personal reasons” are excluded
  • Games missed by “retired” players still under contract (Grant Clitsome, Ryane Clowe, Nathan Horton, Cody McCormick, Marc Savard, Mattias Öhlund, Chris Phillips, Chris Pronger, Stéphane Robidas, Jesse Winchester) are also included, but are separately identifiable